If Kelly Oubre Jr. opts out this summer, Quentin Grimes and Guerschon Yabusele could help determine his future with the Sixers.
Kelly Oubre Jr. has been a revelation for the Sixers ever since he signed a one-year, veteran-minimum contract in September 2023. He started in 52 of his 68 appearances last season and 57 of 60 this year while averaging 15.3 points on 45.4 percent shooting, 5.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 1.3 steals per game over that span.
This offseason, Oubre has a major decision to make. He can become an unrestricted free agent if he declines his $8.4 million player option for the 2025-26 season, although that wouldn’t come without risk. The NBA’s middle class largely had to settle for underwhelming contracts last offseason, as a number of teams preserved their mid-level exceptions to use as trade exceptions in-season. The threat of the aprons and hard caps loomed large, too.
The Brooklyn Nets are the only team projected to have major cap space this offseason, according to Spotrac’s Keith Smith, although the Detroit Pistons and Utah Jazz could join them. Either way, most teams will be limited to the $14.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception at best.
A four-year deal starting at the full non-taxpayer MLE will be worth $60.65 million. The Sixers wouldn’t use their MLE to re-sign Oubre — if anything, that’d likely be reserved for Guerschon Yabusele — but they wouldn’t have to, either. Since Oubre has now been with them for two years, they have Early Bird rights on him, which allows them to offer either 175 percent of his previous salary or 105 percent of the league’s estimated average salary (whichever is greater).
A four-year deal starting at 175 percent of Oubre’s salary this year would begin at slightly less than the non-taxpayer MLE ($14.0 million instead of $14.1 million). However, the Sixers can offer him 8 percent annual raises, while other teams can only offer 5 percent. That would allow them to make up the difference over time. They can offer him a four-year deal worth up to nearly $62.6 million via Early Bird rights if Oubre is fetching offers in the NTMLE range from other teams.
Outside of a sign-and-trade, it’d be surprising if Oubre got offered more than the NTMLE. The bigger question is where he’ll fall on the list of Sixers’ offseason priorities. If they had to choose between re-signing Oubre or Yabusele, which would they pick?
That binary isn’t just a hypothetical, either. If the Sixers need to use some (or all) of the NTMLE to re-sign Yabusele, they’ll be hard-capped at the $195.9 million first apron. Unless they trade one of their Big Three, it might not be possible to re-sign all three of Quentin Grimes, Yabusele and Oubre while staying under that threshold.
If Yabusele was willing to settle for the $5.7 million taxpayer MLE, the Sixers would instead be hard-capped at the $207.8 million second apron. It would be far more feasible for them to keep all three of Grimes, Oubre and Yabusele in that scenario, which is the optimal outcome. Given the uncertain futures of Joel Embiid and Paul George, the Sixers need all of the rotation-caliber depth that they can muster.
Oubre has been one of the most consistent Sixers in this injury-riddled abomination of a season, although that’s an admittedly low bar to clear. Although he’s been a starter for all but 19 games of his Sixers tenure, it’s fair to wonder whether they’d be better off with another long-range shooting threat in their starting lineup in his place. (He’s a career 32.5 percent three-point shooter on middling volume.) That could give the Sixers pause about breaking the bank to retain him.
There’s another reason to re-sign him, though… as long as Josh Harris and Co. sign off on the luxury-tax implications, that is. (Considering what they did with KJ Martin at the trade deadline, that’s no sure thing.)
After signing George in free agency and inking Tyrese Maxey to a five-year max extension last summer, the Sixers are troublingly top-heavy in terms of salary structure. Maxey is set to earn $38.0 million next year, while George and Embiid will each be north of $50 million. If (when) Andre Drummond picks up his $5.0 million player option for next season, the Sixers will enter the offseason with him as their fourth-highest-paid player.
Re-signing Oubre to a contract starting between $10-14 million would give the Sixers a mid-sized contract that they could later package in a trade. Not having a contract of that size was one of the Sixers’ biggest roadblocks at this year’s trade deadline. Granted, they’d need to stay below the second apron so they could aggregate his deal with others (such as Drummond) to bring back someone with a higher salary.
That’s why his fate could be interconnected to those of Grimes and Yabusele. If the Sixers use either the NTMLE or TMLE on Yabusele, they’ll be hard-capped at the first or second apron, respectively. If Grimes receives a massive offer sheet that the Sixers match, that would push them closer to either of the aprons. Even if they let Yabusele walk, crossing the second apron brings with it a host of punishing restrictions, including losing the ability to aggregate contracts in trades or trade a first-round pick that’s seven years in the future.
Oubre could take the decision of the Sixers’ hands by picking up his $8.4 million player option. He’d be guaranteed to become an unrestricted free agent in 2026 if he went that path — contracts that span fewer than three years can’t be extended — but the Sixers would have full Bird rights on him by then. That means they’d be allowed to sign him to any deal up to a max contract, although he wouldn’t come anywhere near that.
Luckily, teams are now allowed to legally negotiate with their own free agents one day after the NBA Finals end. They’ll have at least a full week to gauge how much Grimes, Yabusele and Oubre are hoping to receive in free agency before any other team can legally contact them. (Because as we all know, every team across the league strictly abides by that rule.)
Outside of May 12 — the date of the 2025 NBA draft lottery — the span between the end of the Finals and the start of free agency will go a long way toward shaping the direction of the Sixers’ offseason. Regardless of what Oubre decides, he’ll be one of the primary dominoes in that regard.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Salary Swish and salary-cap information via RealGM.
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