The Sixers might not face as much competition as feared for Quentin Grimes, Guerschon Yabusele and Kelly Oubre Jr. in free agency this offseason.
The Sixers entered last offseason with the ability to create more than $60 million in salary-cap space. This offseason, they’re far more limited in what they can do.
After signing Paul George and Tyrese Maxey to max contracts last summer, the Sixers effectively locked themselves into being an over-the-cap team for the next few years. Those two, Joel Embiid and Jared McCain alone will earn roughly $149.1 million in 2025-26, which is only $5.5 million less than the projected $154.6 million salary cap.
Rather than making to look a major free-agent splash, the Sixers’ top priorities this offseason will likely be retaining their own free agents. Quentin Grimes is heading into restricted free agency, Guerschon Yabusele will be an unrestricted free agent, and Kelly Oubre Jr. could join Yabusele as a UFA if he declines his $8.4 million player option.
Grimes and Yabusele figure to draw interest from other teams in free agency, as does Oubre if he opts out. However, the Brooklyn Nets might wind up being the only team with significant cap space this offseason. That has one prominent agent preparing clients for “a free-agent recession,” according to ESPN’s Brian Windhorst.
“There’s only one team that has a lot of cap space [Brooklyn] and they may want to do a slower rebuild and aren’t looking to spend it all now,” another agent told Windhorst. “I’ve never seen a free agency where only one team has real cap space in my career. These free agents are f—ked.”
That should be music to the ears of Sixers fans hoping to keep Grimes, Yabusele and/or Oubre.
When Grimes arrived in Philly at the trade deadline, he seemed like a candidate for the $14.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception at best. He averaged 10.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.7 threes per game across his 47 appearances with the Dallas Mavericks while shooting 46.3 percent overall and 39.8 percent from deep. No one could have predicted what would come next.
Across his 28 games with the Sixers, Grimes averaged 21.9 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 2.9 three-pointers and 1.5 steals per game while shooting 46.9 percent overall and 37.3 percent from deep. He did most of his damage with all three of Maxey, Embiid and George sidelined, which meant he was the top option on the opponents’ scouting report every night. In other words, he might have earned himself a ton of money by showing new dimensions to his game.
Well, he might have in a normal offseason. Given the projected dearth of cap space around the league this summer, Grimes might be facing a chillier-than-expected market if the Nets don’t break the bank on him. And it seems like Brooklyn may have its eyes on a bigger prize.
“They’ve sent the message that if they do anything major with their space, it’s likely going to be through trade, not signings,” a rival executive told Windhorst of the Nets. “Even if that trade doesn’t happen this summer, they’ll want to keep their options open.”
Grimes could always explore sign-and-trade possibilities, although teams over either apron aren’t allowed to acquire players that way. Six teams are already projected to be over the first apron next season, including the Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers and Denver Nuggets, while four others are projected to be within $5 million of the first apron.
Even in a normal offseason, restricted free agency tends to chill interest in players. Teams aren’t allowed to officially sign RFAs to offer sheets until after the July Moratorium expires on July 6, so they have to preserve their cap space through the opening wave of free agency. That costs them a shot at the players who (unofficially) fly off the board right away.
If the Sixers don’t have to break the bank for Grimes, that could help them with the rest of their roster-building this offseason. The same goes for Oubre unexpectedly picking up his player option rather than testing free agency and hoping for more (perhaps via his Early Bird rights).
As we’ve already covered ad nauseam, all of the Sixers’ major decisions this summer are interconnected, particularly regarding Yabusele. The less they spend to retain Grimes and/or Oubre, the higher the chance that they’ll at least maintain access to the $5.7 million taxpayer mid-level exception, which they’d lose if they cross the second apron. Since they only have non-Bird rights on Yabu, they might have to spend the taxpayer MLE to re-sign him.
However, they should also explore their other options in that salary range before pulling the trigger on re-signing Yabu. After all, if the predictions of a free-agent recession come true, it won’t only affect the Sixers’ free agents.
Last offseason, the likes of Taurean Prince, Gary Trent Jr. and Tyus Jones all wound up signing one-year, minimum-salary contracts. If some teams across the league decide not to spend their respective mid-level exceptions—they could instead save them to use as an in-season trade exception—the Sixers might be able to find an upgrade over Yabusele with their taxpayer MLE.
In his end-of-season press conference, team president Daryl Morey pledged that the Sixers would get “younger” and “more dynamic” this offseason. That suggests they won’t prioritize past-their-prime veterans in free agency. However, Morey and the Sixers’ front office have unearthed bargain-bin gems in Oubre and Yabusele over the past two offseasons. Who’s to say lightning won’t strike a third time this summer?
It only takes one team to throw a larger-than-expected offer at any of the Sixers’ free agents to blow up their offseason plans. But if they’re able to keep Oubre and Grimes without splurging on either one, it could increase their chances of fortifying their supporting cast with the taxpayer MLE. Whether it’s re-signing Yabusele as well or pursuing an external option, that will be their best avenue to add talent in free agency. (Provided they have access to it, that is.)
Staying under the second apron to maintain flexibility on both the free-agent and trade fronts figures to be an organization priority, particularly given Embiid’s uncertain outlook. A chilly free-agent market would do wonders for the Sixers’ cause in that regard.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Salary Swish and salary-cap information via RealGM.
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