Call him rusty or call him washed. Either way, it’s been ugly.
Joel Embiid’s return to the court was meant to, among many things, shore up a promising but inconsistent Sixers’ defense. Around the end of January, especially during a four-game win streak, the team’s defensive identity was slowly emerging: closeouts, collapsing, and chaos.
They had always been near the top of the league in deflections, but they were getting nearly 20 a game during this stretch. Anytime the ball went into the paint, there were three Sixers on it, and then their aggressive closeouts meant opposing teams were shooting 2.1% worse from three.
There was one issue. When teams got into the paint, they were scoring. All season the Sixers have allowed the highest field goal percentage on shots within six feet (67.8%) .
But that’s what Embiid’s here for. It’s why his return brewed hope. Putting his shot-making and transcendent offense to the side, Embiid is big and has always been a great defender, especially at the rim. In the 13 games before his recent return, the team had a 104.6 defensive rating with Embiid on the court, only 0.4 points worse than the league-leading Oklahoma City Thunder defense.
Embiid has delivered on the rim-protecting promise, but it’s come at the expense of the rest of the defense.
In four games since his Feb. 4 return against the Dallas Mavericks, opponents are shooting 21.9% worse than average on shots within 6 feet where Joel Embiid is the closest defender. In other words: When Embiid is the only obstacle between them, less than six feet of space, and the rim, opponents are making just 41.4% of their shots. That’s the best defensive mark for any center in that stretch, and, behind Draymond Green, second-best for any player (minimum three games played, at least three contested shots per game).
So, he’s completed the puzzle, right? Have Nick Nurse and the team breathed a sigh of relief as they’ve slotted their 7-foot franchise piece into the middle of their defense? No. The puzzle is completed. But its completion comes with a gasp of horror. For the completed puzzle shows a defense worse than this analogy.
With Embiid on the court over his last four games, the team has a defensive rating of 117.4. That would be the NBA’s fourth-worst defense on the season, slightly better than the Utah Jazz and slightly worse than the Chicago Bulls. The team’s averaging just 16.5 deflections in the four games Embiid has played, just above the league average for the season. Finally, in these latest Embiid games, teams are shooting 40% from three. The league average for the season is 35.9%
An optimist would reason it’s rust. A pessimist would say his history of leg injuries has cooked him. A realist would say it’s been ugly. They’re probably all right, but the realist is the most right.
Whenever he’s gotten to the right spots, Embiid has been insanely effective. Thwarting off rim shots with his mere presence, or getting up for a highlight swat. When he’s not in the right spot and has to turn, quickly shift directions, or move up, down, left, or right at any pace, he’s been detrimental.
In pick-and-roll coverages, he’s somehow looked dizzy and cement-footed at the same time. The team is trapping any screening actions with him, which means he has to quickly recover back to his man. This is understandable — with his feet as slow as they are, you can’t have him in isolation. But it also means so much hinges on Embiid making the right guess.
Occasionally, he will correctly choose to stay in the lane and force the offense to reset, or he’ll correctly jump out to the shooter to stop an open three. But so many times the Sixers’ defense has been at an immediate disadvantage because Embiid has made the wrong decisions and does not have the energy or explosiveness to correct it.
In the below clip, he sags off Jalen Duren, a zero threat from deep, to be in help position on a Tobias Harris post-up. But he watches and saunters in no man’s land, I guess expecting Harris might spin over and around his defender Paul George. Because no one is guarding him, Duren sets a screen for the shooter Malik Beasley. Beasley is wide open off the screen because Embiid is so deep and slow-footed that he can’t even pounce out for a semi-contest.
In this next clip, he stays in help position for a Marcus Sasser drive, leaving his assignment, Isaiah Stewart, wide open. Sasser, nicely defended by Quentin Grimes, halts his dribble, looks, and then passes to Stewart, who is wide open at the three. Stewart is a below 30% three-point shooter, so I understand Embiid not guarding him tightly. But there is plenty of time for Embiid to close out and make it not a very easy shot for Stewart, who hits the three.
The Milwaukee Bucks exploited Embiid like Rob Pelinka did to Nico Harrison’s friendship. With Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis stretching the floor, Embiid had to cover even more ground, and his sluggishness was made obvious. In a similar play to the one above, Embiid storms into the paint too soon to help on a drive that didn’t need help, leaving Lopez, a guy nicknamed ‘Splash Mountain’, wide-open beyond the arc. Splash Mountain splashed it.
When Embiid decided to jump out to help on the shooter (Bobby Portis this time), he left the lane way too early, letting Damian Lillard drive through it and set up a corner three. It’s an incorrect use of the limited explosive he has and one I think he made because he just wouldn’t have the ability to jump out to Portis in time if he waited a second longer.
And here, Embiid is on the wrong side of the screen and has no idea. He kind of moves towards the shooter, Damian Lillard, but it’s too late. Another splash.
The next three clips are the most obvious examples he doesn’t have the agility, explosiveness, or confidence in his body to correct a play where he’s made the wrong decision. He exerts so much energy in his initial action that he has none left for any secondary action. He is defeated.
This isn’t to say he’s incapable of explosive plays. He had a hustle dive in clutch time against the Toronto Raptors, an insane block on Paul Reed, and his movement and coverage on defense here are perfect. It’s just that these plays now seem to drain his stamina bar. Once that happens, the rest of the team has to scramble and abandon their post to heed off the wave of attack Embiid has let through.
The All-Star break has come at a welcome time for the team and fans alike, but if things continue like this after it, everyone in the organization will be forced to look toward next season.