Though they’ve gotten off to an excellent start, the Boston Celtics are second in the Eastern Conference at 19-5.
This hasn’t led to many people wondering whether the Cleveland Cavaliers, who have the best record out East (21-4), have leapfrogged them per se. However, they’re now regarded as a realistic title-contender, with Cavs head coach Kenny Atkinson even being compared to Golden State Warriors head coach Steve Kerr. Beginning the season 15-0 while trying to master an analytics-driven offensive scheme will do that.
Celtics Appear Primed To Repeat As NBA Champions
The Celtics are responsible for breaking the Cavs win streak.
However, their shot-selection has become a point of contention due to just how many threes they take. If the personnel allows for a proliferation of threes, Boston should play to their strengths. Yet, it’s necessary to realize that not every player has the same strengths. This is why Jaylen Brown, who took plenty of three-point jumpers to make Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla happy, needed to change his shot diet.
“I think my physique — I’m stronger, I’m more physical, I’m faster,“ Brown says, per MassLive reporter Souichi Terada. “So I’ve been using my body, I’ve been screening better, just getting to the paint. So that’s led to me shooting a lot more free throws. We have a lot of three-point shooters on our team, so I try to be the guy that’s getting into the paint, getting a paint touch before we get those threes.”
Once Brown began to take his shots closer in, his and Boston’s offense looked much better. To that point, a three-pointer is worth more than a two-pointer. But only when a player makes them.
With that being said, what makes the Celtics a favorite to make it to at least the Eastern Conference Finals isn’t necessarily their shot-selection. The primary factor is simply that the Celtics’ personnel allows them to be more dominant at both ends.
Championships Aren’t Won On Paper, But…
Comparing the faces of the franchises, Donovan Mitchell is certainly more athletic than Jayson Tatum but he’s not quite as dominant. Brown is more athletic than Darius Garland. Yet, he’s also a more skilled scorer and more formidable defender.
Derrick White isn’t on Evan Mobley’s level in terms of being a mismatch weapon, as Mobley can and will pivot to the pivot. However, he’s arguably just as productive and impactful at both ends. That’s why there have been calls for him to be an All-Star since last season despite him not putting up the traditional scoring numbers.
Kristaps Porzingis is a more dynamic center than Jarrett Allen because of his outside efficiency as a 7-foot-2 center. Indeed, the Celtics are able to constantly run a five-out offense largely because of him and Al Horford. This magnifies the strengths of Boston’s ball-handlers and slashers due to the spacing it provides. On top of that, both Porzingis and Horford can hold their own defensively.
Looking at their supporting casts, Holiday is a superior defender to Caris LeVert. Nonetheless, LeVert is a bigger scoring threat. As previously mentioned, Horford is a stretch-five who makes his presence felt defensively. Yet, Max Strus is also shooting specialist who plays his heart out at the other end, just as a wing rather than a big. Choosing between Celtics guard Payton Pritchard and Cavs guard Ty Jerome, both sixth men, is a toss-up.
Ultimately, Boston has a slight edge over the Cavs when healthy. That’s how it looks not just on paper, but when they’ve met up this season. If Cleveland is their stiffest competition out East, the Celtics might be primed for their second straight NBA Finals appearance.
Top Eastern Conference Contenders
Among the East’s other projected title contenders, the Philadelphia 76ers have also amassed an exciting team on paper. Yet, they’re at the mercy of injuries and poor defensive personnel.
The New York Knicks run a five-out offense, similar to the Celtics and Sixers. However, they’re closer to Philadelphia than Boston because of their defensive shortcomings. New York also has a pretty thin bench, which could become problematic. Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau would rather play his starters 40 minutes anyways, especially since the playoffs.
Nonetheless, this places enormous pressure on his first unit and could lead to fatigue-related issues down the line.
Everything That Glitters…
There’s a clear imbalance of power between the East and the West. Yet, the top teams in the Eastern Conference present just as daunting a challenge as their Western Conference counterparts, if not more.
The Oklahoma City Thunder (19-5) are currently sitting atop the West standings, for the second straight season no less. Led by MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who was snubbed last season, they’re a young team that needs to be taken seriously. Even more than the Orlando Magic, who are 17-8, though not considered a championship-contender at this juncture.
Just behind the Thunder are the Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies, tied at 17-8.
These aren’t James Harden’s Rockets, as they’re a team that prides itself on being elite defensively. These aren’t Tony Allen’s Grizzlies, as their focus is on the offensive end. Yet, there are interesting similarities between Rockets guard Jalen Green and Grizzlies guard Ja Morant. There’s also a bit of overlap between Rockets center Alperen Sengun and Grizzlies forward-center Jaren Jackson Jr. offensively.
Unfortunately for each of these up and coming teams, they aren’t as battle-tested as Boston. That doesn’t guarantee a series victory for the Celtics but experience often does play a major role in the postseason. Houston and Memphis also lack their balance, making them more susceptible to a loss than a team like Oklahoma City.
The Thunder —though they would make Boston work hard to beat them in the NBA Finals —may not be quite ready from a talent standpoint. More to the point, they don’t have enough top-end players to stick with Boston in a seven-game series. This is particularly true with how well the Celtics defend perimeter players.
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