As the season wore on, it became increasingly obvious the Sixers were going to lose certain games on the schedule. But that wasn’t always the case early on.
With the early-week results, Philadelphia’s lottery odds are practically finalized. Barring a miracle, the Sixers will finish with the fifth-best chance at the first-overall pick and a 64% chance at retaining their top-six protected first-rounder. The Sixers are now unable to catch the Pelicans for the fourth-best odds after New Orleans lost on Thursday night in Milwaukee. Brooklyn would have to lose out and the Sixers would need to win out in order for a random drawing to take place for the fifth slot.
If you paid attention to the lottery standings for most of the season, you’d certainly take this outcome for the Sixers. New Orleans spent almost the whole year battling with Washington, Charlotte and Utah for one of the top three lottery slots. The Sixers were much closer with Brooklyn and Toronto for the bulk of the second half and had they finished lower than either team, they would have had less than a 50-50 shot at keeping their first-rounder.
With the pipe dream of catching New Orleans now dead, Sixers fans should be happy with what was always the best realistic outcome heading into the lottery. But, this outcome was only made possible by lots of early-season losses when a tank wasn’t on anyone’s mind. We felt it would be a good time to look back on some close calls this season that went “against” the Sixers that we should be happy for now.
November 20, 2024: Grizzlies 117, Sixers 111
The season was about one month old at this point and it was the fourth game Joel Embiid participated in. Statistically, it was one of Embiid’s better games of the season as he finished with 35 points and 11 rebounds and was a +7. The loss dropped the Sixers to 2-12 while Memphis improved to 9-7. Gambling markets were far from done with the Sixers at this point though as Philly entered as a 4.5-point road favorite in Memphis. Surely, this isn’t the only data point in which we can say, “How were the Sixers favored against that team?”
The Sixers trailed by 10 at halftime in this game and Memphis led by as many as 19 halfway thru the fourth quarter. Had the Sixers started their comeback effort a little earlier, they might have gotten all the way back and been able to win the game. A win here might have galvanized the Sixers behind Embiid a little more. On one hand it’s pretty surprising Philly was even in the game down the stretch given Paul George and Tyrese Maxey combined for just 10 points on 4-of-19 shooting in this one.
Perhaps the woeful outings from George and Maxey are all the more reason why getting all the way back to win this one might have gotten the Sixers out of their early-season rut. Had Philly pulled off a comeback win against a good team on the road behind Embiid and the role players, there could have been enough of a short-term spark that also ignited George and Maxey and resulted in a few more wins.
November 27, 2024: Rockets 122, Sixers 115 (OT)
Like the Grizzlies game, this was one in which the Rockets seemed to have control of things most of the way, but the Sixers wouldn’t go away. Houston led by 11 after the first quarter and that lead was pretty much in the 7-12 range for the Rockets most of the night. With two minutes left, Houston held a 108-100 lead. Behind some shot-making from Ricky Council IV and Guerschon Yabusele and some late-game free throws from Maxey, Philly managed to get this game into OT, tied at 108 at the end of regulation.
The Sixers were down both George and Embiid on this night. This kind of come-from-behind win against a contender could have done a lot for the team’s morale at an early enough point in the season to where things might have still been salvageable. Make no mistake, the Sixers lost plenty of games by double digits out of the gate. But these kinds of losses where valiant efforts to stave off more blowout losses against good teams, only to still lose the games, feel like the ones that prevented them from getting hot.
January 1, 2025: Kings 113, Sixers 107
As you can see, we’re going in chronological order here, but if we were to rate the importance of these losses, this one is probably No. 1. The Sixers ended December on a four-game winning streak, highlighted by a Christmas Day win in Boston. Philadelphia entered this New Year’s night clash with Sacramento at 13-17, getting closer and closer to .500 after the 3-14 start. The Sixers had a lead as large as 14 in this game and held a nine-point lead with just over three minutes to go until a disastrous close gave the Kings a win.
Embiid did not suit up in this game, but it was one that a serious contender that came in playing well would have won without its best player. Sacramento hovered around .500 all season, and wound up firing its head coach and trading away De’Aaron Fox. To blow a game in this fashion to a team as mediocre as the Kings was a good sign that this team was not very serious and certainly wasn’t going to be able to hold up without Embiid.
The ripple effect this game had on the rest of the season was certainly profound. As we noted, this was the Sixers’ 31st game of the year and they had won 13 of their first 30. They went on to win just 11 of their next 50. The immediate next game was a 34-point blowout loss in San Francisco against the Warriors.
February 11, 2025: Raptors 106, Sixers 103
By this point, a good portion of the fanbase was already on the tank train. But, not everyone. The Sixers came into this game at 20-33. They were still just one game behind Chicago in the loss column for the final play-in tournament spot. At this point in the season tank enthusiasts still knew getting to the fifth slot in the lottery would be an uphill battle. Brooklyn had one more loss than Philly entering this game and Toronto had four more losses than the Sixers had at this point. We were down to just two months left in the regular season and a doomsday scenario of no play-in tournament and sending Oklahoma City a pick in the top 10 was looking very real.
Embiid, Maxey and George were all ruled in for this contest and Philadelphia went off as a 10.5-point favorite. Not only did the Sixers lose, but they lost a game in which Maxey and George were horrible in. Embiid had an inefficient 27 points and passed up a wide-open three that would have given the Sixers the lead in the final 10 seconds.
This loss was probably the loss that crushed any hopes of sneaking into the play-in tournament and seeing what happens. At the time, even with how bad the Sixers season was trending, they were still comfortably ahead of the Raptors in the lottery standings. They lost a home game to Toronto with their “Big 3” all available. After that, I think everyone knew nothing of consequence was going to happen this season and most already knew that.
March 17, 2025: Rockets 144, Sixers 137 (OT)
Let’s first start off by acknowledging maybe this is not the year for the Rockets. They seem to be trending in the right direction as a franchise but if you’re twice listed as a team that almost lost to the Sixers in 2024-25, you might not be ready for a deep playoff run.
With the Sixers firmly entrenched in a tank war for the fifth slot in the lottery standings at this point, this was a game many fans had probably already etched in as a loss. I’m sure most fans didn’t even expect to watch the game and would just check the score a few hours after tip off and hope to see a comfortable loss.
But if anyone caught the score early enough, they might have dialed in out of fear for how well the Sixers started this game. As a 16.5-point underdog, the Sixers led by as many as 25 points early in the third quarter. Earlier in the day, George had been ruled out for the season, joining Embiid on the shelf for the remainder of 2024-25. Maxey was also out. A group of castoffs for Philly was slaughtering a team that’s going to finish with the West’s second-best record.
Things were very tight with Brooklyn and Toronto in the race for the five seed at this point. Had the Sixers won this game, or any of the others on our list, things would still be tight with Brooklyn to secure the fifth slot. It was a game the Sixers had no business winning, and fortunately, they found a way to lose it.